Population parameters

Contact matrix

In this section, it is defined how frequently people of the different age classes come into contact. A contact between a contagious and a susceptible individual makes the transmission of the pathogen possible, but it is not necessarily sufficient for a transmission.



The Contact matrix supplied by InfluSim is based on a study where the weekly number of conversations between people of different age classes was studied. As the raw data were not fully consistent, the authors of the study first had to take averages of the supplied frequencies, so that e.g. the same number of conversations would happen between children and working adults as between working adults and children. The resulting Contact matrix is used here to indicate how often people of the different age classes contact each other. Not every one of these contacts will necessarily lead to disease transmission. In order to obtain the user-supplied basic reproduction number (which summarizes the most important epidemiologic parameters), the program calculates a common multiplication factor for all the entries of the Contact matrix. Thus the relative sizes of the entries in this table remain unchanged.
Child-child contacts at school [%] determines what fraction of contacts among children who are in the same age-class usually happens in day care centers or schools. When day care centers and schools are closed, the contacts among children within the the same age class are reduced by the factor Child-child contacts at school [%], whereas the contacts between children of different age classes are not affected. The contact rate between (healthy) children and adults may increase due to increased contacts at home (note that children who are severely sick do not attend day care centers and do not go to school).
Child health care contact factor determines how the contacts between children and adults (i.e. working adults and elderly) change if severely sick children are taken care of at home or in hospitals. Thereby, a factor 1.0 means that the contacts between children and adults contacts remain the same (no increase in contact), a factor of 2.0 means that severely sick children double their contact rate with adults, etc.

Parameter settings

If no age-dependent contacts are to be considered, all entries of the Contact matrix have to be supplied with the value 1.0.
To avoid mathematically impossible parameter constellations, negative values and zeros are not allowed in the Contact matrix. If the user wants to reduce the contact rate between two age classes to (practically) zero, a very low value can be used, though.
We are not aware of literature values for Child-child contacts at school [%] and for the Child health care contact factor. As these parameters highly depend on the population which is modelled, the standard values supplied by InfluSim may not fully correspond to the reality and may need to be adjusted.

Cross-references

The Contact matrix is based on the definition of the age classes. It determines how likely people of different age classes infect each other.
The pre-set Contact matrix can temporarily be modified by general reduction of contacts, by closing of day care centers and schools and by cancelling of mass gathering events.
The Contact matrix can also temporarily be modified by partial isolation of cases.

Literature

Contact matrix:
Wallinga J, Teunis P, Kretzschmar M. Using social contact data to estimate age-specific transmission parameters for infectious respiratory spread agents. American Journal of Epidemiology 2006; in press.
Child-child contacts at school [%] and Child health care contact factor:
We are not aware of published values of these parameters. It obliges the user to supply these values.


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