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Asymptomatic cases [%] determines which percentag of infected individuals never show any symptoms. |
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Severe cases among symptomatic [%] determines which percentage of those individuals who show symptoms develop severe disease. Using the pre-set values, we obtain that - independent of the age group and of the risk group of the infected individual - about one third of infections take an asymptomatic course or lead to mild or severe disaese. |
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The separation into asymptomatic infections and moderately and severely sick cases influences the infection dynamics via the duration of infection and disease and the average degree of contagiousness. |
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Severely sick cases will be distinquished into cases who can be taken care of at home and cases who neeed hospitalization in section fraction of hospitalized cases among untreated severe cases. |
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Severely sick patients seek medical help and, thereby, contribute to the number of outpatients; they may also receive antiviral treatment. |
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Severely sick children do not attend day care center or go to school; severely sick adults do not attend mass events. |
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Severely sick working adults do not go to work during the period of their disease and convalescence. The associated work lost contributes to the costs of the epidemic. |
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Changes in these parameters are directly reflected in shifts between the curves of asymptomatic, moderately sick and severe cases. |
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Indirectly, this can also influence the curves of hospitalizations and work loss and the associated cumulative curves and costs. |
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Asymptomatic cases [%]:
Longini IM Jr., Halloran ME, Nizam A, Yang Y: Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents. American Journal of Epidemiology 2004; 159: 623-633. |
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Severe cases among symptomatic [%]:
Influenzapandemieplanung: Nationaler Infuenzapandemieplan. Bundesgesundheitsblatt - Gesundheitsforschung - Gesundheitsschutz 2005; 48: 356-390. |
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