|
|
Susceptible (red curve) displays the time-dependent number of susceptible individuals in the population. |
|
|
Exposed (dark blue curve) displays the time-dependent number of individuals in the population who are incubating the infection. |
|
|
Asymptomatic (green curve) displays the time-dependent number of infected individuals who have passed the incubation period, but do not (and will not) have any symptoms. Depending on the parameter settings, asymptomatic individuals can be contagious. |
|
|
Moderate (yellow curve) displays the time-dependent number of individuals in the population who are moderately sick. |
|
|
Severe (magenta curve) displays the time-dependent number of individuals in the population who are severely sick. No distinction is made here between sick cases who can be taken care of at home and others who need hospitalization. |
|
|
Dead (light blue curve) displays the number of individuals who have died until the given time. |
|
|
Immune (violet curve) displays the time-dependent number of individuals in the population who are immune. No distinction is made here between fully recovered and convalescent individuals who have passed their period of contagiousness. |
|
The dynamics of transmission is most importantly influenced by the Basic reproduction number and the course of the contagiousness, but it is also influenced by the demographic parameters, the contact matrix and by the natural history of the disease. It can be reduced by case isolation, contact reductions, antiviral treatment etc. |
|
|
In the simulation, all but one individuals start as Susceptible. The simulation starts with one individual in the Exposed stage. |
|
|
The Exposed curve depends on the average duration of the latent stage. |
|
|
The Asymptomatic curve depends on the fraction of infected individuals who remain asymptomatic and on the average duration of asymptomatic infection. |
|
|
The Moderate curve depends on the fraction of infected individuals developing moderate disease and on the average duration of moderate disease. |
|
|
The Severe curve depends on the fraction of infected individuals developing severe disease and on the average duration of severe disease. |
|
|
The cumulative curve of Dead depends on the fraction of extremely sick individuals who die from the disease. It indirectly also depends on the fraction of severe cases who are so sick that they need hospitalization and on the overall distribution of severity of cases. The number of deaths can (indirectly) be reduced by antiviral treatment. |
|
Back to main page |